Showing posts with label bitcoin. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bitcoin. Show all posts

Wednesday, November 16, 2022

to crypto or not to crypto - part 3

so now we have a crypto saga... some dude who owns one of the largest crypto exchanges turns out to be a fraud. so here we have the 2008 crisis once again. it is the equivalent of having one of the most established investment banks collapse. not saying that this exchange is a gazillion years old. just saying that it is one of the significant players in the infrastructure for crypto currencies. 

does that mean crypto currency would lose value? 

well... to answer that question, you have to ask yourself, do we still require an alternative to fiat currencies?

in 2008, the fact that an investment bank collapse does not mean property is a bad asset class. it means the people who give out loans for properties should be selective. loans should be given out to people who are able to repay. it means that banker should not sell the risky loans to retirement funds by getting the rating agencies to say they are non risky loans. it means that government should not have bailed bad investment banks for making bad decisions without stating the clear criteria for bail out - ie they should not pay themselves shitload of money for f*cking up.

so, today, the fact that a fraudster caused the exchange to collapse does not mean all crypto currencies are worthless. it means (hopefully), that once the root cause of the collapse has been identified, that it would be prevented from happening again. it means (hopefully), that the other affected exchanges, if they survive, would have controls in place to prevent the same from happening again. it means (hopefully) that the worthless coins that may not be able to hold its worth would go away... at least for awhile.

but i suppose that is just history repeating itself. it always start off with the right intention. somebody want to enable something wonderful. then greed kicks in. someone figured out how to work the system. gets everybody into trouble. people wake up and learn from the mess. comes up with controls. it is peaceful for awhile and then greed kicks in again. and history repeats itself in different forms. nothing new really.


Monday, November 07, 2022

to cypto or not to crypto - part 2

i have just attended a crypto investor programme with Equities Tracker and am now bona fide bitcoin expert... i hope > <

so, let's test me. i welcome any question on the subject!! 

a friend did ask - where did bitcoin's value come from? 

this line of questioning is probably best done in person as different people have different perspectives. but i will attempt it anyway. so, where do any of the fiat currency's value come from? it comes from its ability to serve as money. what is money? money is something that would be durable, portable, divisible, uniform, limited in supply (hence ability to store value) and acceptability. why would you accept the US dollar but not the venezuelan bolivar as payment. it is because the venezuelan bolivar is not limited in supply (hence unable to store value). then again, the US dollar is not limited in supply. as a matter of fact, then US has been printing money irresponsibly - resulting in a worldwide inflation. so US dollar's value is simply attributable too many people are holding US dollar and may not (at this point) want to see it fail - and not its ability to serve as money. Its value lies, currently, in its acceptability.  

so, bitcoin - durable and portable as it lives on the internet, divisible up to 8 decimals (a.k.a 1 satoshi), uniform, limited in supply to a maximum of 21million BTC scheduled to be mined by 2140 and acceptability has been growing, evidenced by the growing infrastructure that support BTC. 

then why do the governments and the banks discredit the coin and say it is a scam? 

control. 

governments and banks have been the centralized authority for money all this time. they decide how much money to print (and in effect, how much and when to rob the people). with bitcoin, it is decentralized. no one party is able to control bitcoin. there is this fear of the loss of control and therefore, governments and banks have attempted to discredit bitcoin. that is, until they are ready with their version of "crypto currency". at least that is what they are going to try to get people to believe. they are going to try to get people to believe that their digital money is crypto currency - when in fact it is a world of difference. 

before buying any crypto currency - read the white paper. because there would be no authority for you to go cry to should you find your money missing and if it is missing - it is probably because you were careless with your passwords or you were not aware of the terms already stated to you on the white paper. before buying any "crypto currency" from the banks or governments - check the headlines for what they used to say about bitcoin. if they claim it wouldn't work before, why would they now have their version of the same? people do have very short term memory. thanks to branding, we choose to believe the banks although they have lied to the people over and over again. 

why would the bitcoin price fluctuate this way if it was of value?

well, it is currently finding its equilibrium. being new (and growing), its value is still uncertain because there are skeptics and there are many powerful people who would prefer if it does not exist. but if you believe that the existing monetary system is not working and that there is value in bitcoin, then if you are a value investor, you would realize that this is a value-price divergence. and it is a huge divergence. as bitcoin is not an equity, it is closer to a form of money and so, more like forex than stocks, there is no secondary value (correction for my previous post). its eventual value would depend on how widely it is accepted. the current valuation fluctuates as such because the number of people trading on it is relatively small. as the institutions are currently obviously preparing to battle bitcoin with their own "crypto" (and scam the people - again) and probably have already secured bitcoin for themselves, the subsequent waves would be interesting. 

there are so many coins out there. how do i know which coin to invest in?

similar to stocks - there are so many companies out there, how do i know which one to invest in? do your own research. find your own country's Equities Tracker. look for research that would provide you with facts. read the white papers. 

On another note, the subconscious mind is so powerful. Uncle Jimmy's words has really gone into my head and obviously, deeply ingrained in his sons'. He found a way to manage through investments and i definitely believe in value investing. Uncle Jimmy has always been all about power to the people. and supporting bitcoin is all about power to the people. his sons are perpetuating his legacy -  which is pretty cool. 




Wednesday, August 24, 2022

to crypto or not to crypto?

In my mind, I am able to understand why people would search for an alternative to money. And i understand crypto currency's value is different from it's secondary value in the market where it is traded. It's value should depend on its durability, portability, divisibility, uniformity, limited supply and acceptability. So meaning its value really depends on if its supply is truly limited and if it has the ability to be accepted by the merchants out there. 

The current financial sector that has engineered the current global inflation situation we are in would likely have the money to ensure that their crypto currency would be accepted widely. However, i think i would like to support a crypto currency that is not by a bank or a particular country. Having said that, how do i know who is truly behind the currency i would like support? 

hmmm.....

10 Nov 2022 - correction, there is no secondary value for bitcoin. It's value fluctuates at the moment as it finds its equilibrium. Partly because there are many skeptics out there, partly because there are many powerful people who do not want bitcoin to succeed, partly because many people are buying and selling bitcoin without knowing much about it, partly because the institutions that were attempting to discredit it is now jumping into the bandwagon and causing the fluctuation, partly because its acceptance is growing, partly because the infrastructure that support it is growing, partly because the community that wants to see it work is growing... 

Friday, August 19, 2022

Why we search for alternatives to banks and money

Banks claim to create wealth. But do they really? They manage money - which is the medium we think store wealth. But money lose value all the time. Meaning the people keeping money are robbed all the time without realizing it! After watching numerous documentaries and reading loads of stuff, i think banks do not create wealth. They redistribute wealth. Mostly to themselves and to the people keeping them out of trouble. And screwing their customers. 

Came across this thing called credit default swaps, explained in numerous documentaries. It comes across as a pretty screwed up tool for the banks. 

Explaining it simply, banks take money and help you keep it physically safe (it does not mean the value of the piece of paper stays unchanged - it just means you are likely to have that piece of paper when you wish to withdraw it). And since it is something of value, they pay you a tiny interest for it. Then they take the money that they have and they give out loans. They are able to give out loans amounting to more money than what the banks' customers have deposited with the bank. And they charge the lenders an interest (which of course, is a higher percentage than what is paid to the depositors). 

I have yet to understand why they are able to give out more than what the depositors have placed with them. But to me, that is what i understand to be printing money. However, it is very different from creation of wealth. It does however, sound like re-distribution of wealth. Imagine if you are on a plot of land that has 5 farms. 4 farms are established and healthy. So you have plenty of vegetables, chickens, cows, etc. And those 4 hardworking farmers store their money with mister banker. Mister scammy came along and said, i have not farm before and i do not have many assets, but i would like to borrow some money, buy farm 5 and plant dragon fruits for sale. Mister banker want to sell the loan because if he sells this loan, he will get a huge bonus from the bank. So he say, sure mister scammy, take the money. And he gives out more money than the total money saved by the established 4 farmers in the bank. So, now all the money in the system represents the value of everything on that plot of land. Effectively distributing the 4 farmers' wealth to mister banker (bonus) and mister scammy (loan which might go bad). There is more money in the system, but essentially, it is worth less. At least until and if mr scammy manage to establish a healthy, profitable farm. 

Then mister banker got creative. He wants more bonus. And he wants to give out more loans. So, he need more money to come into the bank. And he knows mister scammy might not be able to repay his loan. So, he also need to get rid of the risk associated with the loan that he has given out on behalf of the bank. One fine day, a new customer came to the bank. This customer has some money from other plots of land and would like mister banker to advise him on how to make more money. Mister banker told new customer, why don't you buy this asset I have - it is a loan (mister scammy's loan) and you can get interest from this loan. New customer asks, what if they lender default? Mister banker says, don't worry, I will get rating agency to verify that it is a good "investment". So, he bought rating agency a bottle of wine and says, mister scammy's loan looks like a AAA asset - don't you think? As it is a very expensive bottle of wine, rating agency agreed and says, it does look like a solid investment. With that, mister banker screwed new customer over and sold him a loan likely to default - with the help of rating agency. And now bank has more money to loan to other people like mister scammy. The overall wealth of the plot of land and now the adjacent land is now overall less - unless mister scammy turns out to be a talented farmer. And the wealth of the hardworking farmer and new customer has now be redistributed to mister banker and mister scammy and rating agency. There is even more money in the system, but it would be chasing after less vegetables, chickens and cows. The money held would be worth less (again). 

With this tool, banks can give out loans irresponsibly, because they can offload their risks to unsuspecting investors with the help of the not-so-objective rating agencies. Earn their bonuses and not worry about non-performing loans. That would be somebody else's investment risk. 

This is why crypto currency exists - the people are trying to look for an alternative. To give banks less power. To take away the "services" they claim to provide. To make banks less relevant. Because time and again they create bubbles by doing things do not create wealth and then they threaten the not so smart politicians - if you don't save me, your country's financial system will collapse and you will be in recession. Well mister banker, it is time wrap arms around each other and die together (direct translation from cantonese dialect). When they bankers have stolen enough and the people are fed up enough, people might be willing to see how things can be when banks (if they still exist) have significantly less relevance. Bail outs have happened time and again with no difference in outcome. Perhaps it is time to try something different. 

Be aware of new vehicles that may not be called banks, but does exactly what banks do. So, educate yourself. As tools become more complex, don't ever agree that it is too complex for you to understand. If banks do not understand their products well enough to explain it is a simple manner, then they do not deserve the business. when banks tell you it is a good investment backed by rating agencies - know that there are always fine prints - you are investing knowing that there is "investment risk" and rating agencies' ratings are only an "opinion", not a recommendation.